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US Equities remain within a range which has become a theme since the early year rally faded. The SPX and the Nasdaq put in marginal gains yesterday, but the ongoing indecisiveness remains. Last week’s FOMC meeting was seen as providing hope on the longer-term direction for US Equities, however with slightly more clarity on rates from the FED the attention has turned to a potential recession.

US Earnings have remained robust of late, offsetting any potential losses from the ongoing fears around the US banking crisis as well as a potential recession. Markets are also waiting on highly anticipated talks regarding the US Debt Ceiling as fears continue to mount around a default which is weighing on sentiment. US President Biden is expected to discuss the debt ceiling with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (first meeting in 3 months), Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Congressional Democrats later today. The hope is to find some middle ground as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has continued to sound the alarm over the implications of a default for the US and Global economies.


The Nasdaq 100 Index continues to grind higher printing a fresh YTD high yesterday. The index was in its longest bear market (143 days) since the 2008 financial crisis until yesterday when the index officially entered bull market territory. The index is now up some 20% from its lows but remains 24% of the record highs set in November 2021. Taking a quick look back historically at past declines by the Nasdaq 100 Index and we can see that the current iteration ranks favorably in comparison with a decline of 22.2% compared to the 2008 financial crisis with a print of 53.97%.

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Looking ahead to the rest of the day and the economic calendar doesn’t look all that exciting. Federal Reserve speakers appear to be the highlight of the day as markets wait patiently on US CPI data.


For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar

Given the lack of risk events the earnings calendar is likely to play a bigger part in price movements ahead of US CPI tomorrow. We have a host of companies reporting today, the chief among them being AirBnB, Apollo Global Management and of course last year’s big winner Occidental Petroleum.


For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar


Market participants cheered the potential end of the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle last week as historically Equity markets have benefited from such a move. Current conditions remain challenging however, with strong jobs data on Friday the probability of the Fed to holding rates higher for longer continues to increase. Yesterdays Fed quarterly loan survey showed tighter lending standards and a weaker demand for credit from large and medium sized companies over the first quarter. A sign that the lagging effects from the hiking cycle are starting to filter through to the economy and could weigh further on US equities moving forward.

S&P 500 Daily Chart – May 9, 2023


Source: TradingView

Looking at the daily timeframe on the SPX and we can see the indecision reflected in recent price action. Having printed a lower low on April 26, price then printed a new higher high before once again printing a lower low last week. However, the top around 4200 also happens to be the range top which has been holding firm since August 2022. The SPX has been caught in a range between 3800 and 4200 since the beginning of 2023 with no clear breakout in sight. Selling pressure will persist as long we stay below the 4200 handle with a retest of the 100-day MA at around the 4000 mark looking all the more likely. Key intraday support 4100 and 4050 with resistance around 4147 and of course the 4200 mark.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart – May 9, 2023


Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq 100 Index narrowly printed a fresh YTD high yesterday before closing as a doji candlestick. We have seen the Nasdaq futures tick lower so far ahead of the US open as we have a potential double-top pattern in play as well. Similar to the SPX, Nasdaq has been stuck in a 450-point range between 12850 and 13300 since the beginning of April.

As discussed above we have technically entered a bull market on the Nasdaq and yet downside pressure remains. Rangebound trading opportunities continue to present themselves however the longer-term outlook remains murky.

Key intraday support areas lie around 13195, 13107 and 12935 while resistance rests around the 13300, 13600 and 14000 levels respectively.

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Written by: Zain Vawda, Market Writer for

Contact and follow Zain on Twitter: @zvawda

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